Why It's Easier For Victorian Labor To Blame One Nation Than Address Core Issues
With the state election coming up in under a year things are starting to kick in with many of the major parties making moves to secure a victory. Most recently we saw The Liberal Party dump Brad Battin for Jess Wilson and it seems to have gone well for the time being with the polls seeing the Liberals for the first time being the preferred Premier.
But the unknown in the room is One Nation which continues to attract votes in fringe communities, while many state they are picking up Liberal votes, there are many indicators showcasing that this might not be the case. Today we will have a look into why many of the seats they are growing in (possibly unlikely to win yet) are Labor heartland seats and what is driving this change.
Mortgage Belt - Growth Corridors
In Victoria’s outer fringe suburbs it is becoming far more convenient for Labor to talk about “extremism” and One Nation than to talk about something much more uncomfortable that is really happening in places like the Western suburbs and that is the sheer financial pain their own voters are living through.
The west is not alone as all around Melbourne the mortgage belt growth corridors – Melton, Sunbury, Pakenham, Tarneit, Werribee and beyond. Families are doing everything “right” and still going backwards. When voters in these areas drift towards One Nation or other protest parties, it’s easy to brand it as a slide to the extremes. It’s harder to admit that housing costs, mortgage stress, the broader cost-of-living crisis, inadequate health and services including roads have created a deep sense of betrayal.
The Victorian Parliament’s own research spells out how tough things have become on the fringes yet the local MPs like Natalie Hutchins and Steve McGhie in the west continue to fail on delivering outcomes for these communities. Victorian Labor continues to add insult to injury by pre selecting Uros Rasic and Broden Borg two individuals who are long term labor staffers with possibly no real skill sets (noting Brendan is a teacher) or political knowledge and expect them to deliver for the west.
Broden himself has a shadow casted over him as he quit he’s term on council early opting to accept a job in Dubai, not that there is anything wrong with that. But he has already perceived to have let the community down once in an elected role. Uros has been reported to have no real world experience having been a staffer and AWU shoppie. The west feels as if it is being taken for granted again.
Despite Vic Labor holding elections which are overseen by the Victorian Electoral Commission it is interesting to point out that candidates are selected long before any election is held. There are further rumours circulating that any potential candidates that do come up and rock the boat are attacked and have their reputations destroyed in order to interfere with the election. But that is yet to be proven. Given that the announced candidates have long been promoted, one does need to ask. Are we being groomed?
Vic Parliament Housing Data
The referenced above Housing in Victoria: a quick guide from the Parliamentary Library shows that Population growth of more than 50% between 2011 and 2021 was concentrated in peripheral urban districts like Melton, Pakenham, Point Cook, South Barwon, Tarneit, Werribee and Yan Yean which are classic outer fringe growth areas. These same peripheral urban areas of Melbourne have much higher proportions of mortgage-holders than the state average.
The report notes explicitly that mortgage stress is higher in the peripheral urban areas closer to Melbourne, particularly where there are lots of younger families in the 20–40 age range. On top of that, the same report highlights that Median house prices in Greater Melbourne rose about 10.9% between 2018 and 2023, and the median house price was 12.6 times the average annual salary in 2022 up from 9.5 times a decade earlier.
Median rents in metropolitan Melbourne jumped 15.7% in a single year to mid 2023, the sharpest rise since 2000 with renters typically needing over 30% of earnings to afford median rent. Which should have had the Labor MPs in these areas up in arms as it is typically accepted that a mortgage should only be 30% of your wage, not renting.
Just this month Victoria was identified as one of the most overall “stressed” states, with more than a million households in mortgage or rental stress, and outer north, west and south east suburbs dominating the list of high stress areas. A national DFA report earlier in 2025 estimated 1.1 million Victorian households facing mortgage or rent stress, with outer growth suburbs like Narre Warren and Roxburgh Park singled out as hotspots.
Separate S&P Global Ratings data on mortgage arrears shows Craigieburn, Narre Warren and Pakenham all outer metro suburbs among the worst postcodes in Australia for people falling behind on loans.
On the rental side, DFA data reported in media found extreme rental stress in outer suburbs across the capitals. In Melbourne, areas like Tarneit are now among those with very high proportions of renters in stress (distress).
The outer fringe is where population is booming, mortgages are largest, arrears and stress are highest, and renters are being smashed by rising costs.
That's even before we get started on the failure to meet infrastructure, roads and health needs which massively add to the cost of living and reduce voters quality of life.
One Nation Growth In These Areas
One Nation has quietly become a permanent feature of the political landscape in these areas and both Labor and Liberal know it. In the 2022 federal election, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation polled 3.83% of the primary vote in Victoria, up almost 3 percentage points on the previous election a big swing for a party that historically struggled in the state.
In the new federal seat of Hawke which now covers Melton, Sunbury and surrounding growth areas the One Nation candidate, Nick Suduk, secured around 9% of first preference votes and more than double the statewide One Nation average.
Hawke is exactly the kind of fringe electorate the Victorian Parliament’s housing report describes with rapid population growth, heavily mortgaged young families and elevated levels of housing stress.
And while Labor's Sam Rae delivered for the area securing over 1 Billion in federal funding to upgrade the highway. The Vic Labor State Government has allegedly delayed initiatives to use it as a "state election commitment" another sign the state branch might be taking advantage of the common voters intelligence..... We know Sam got the cash, just deliver it NOW.
We see similar dynamics in the outer south east. Pakenham and Narre Warren which all sit in and around the federal division of La Trobe and appear in national lists of suburbs with the worst mortgage arrears, meaning large numbers of households are behind on their loans.
Nationally, commentary around the upcoming 2026 election has pointed out that One Nation and other right-of-centre minor parties are strongest in outer suburban and regional seats suffering most from cost-of-living pressures, with the Coalition relying heavily on their preferences to be competitive in those areas.
It is important to note that none of this can 100% prove that mortgage stress “causes” a One Nation vote as politics is never that simple, but the overlap is hard to ignore especially when we are out seeing ON campaign and engage in these discussions. We won't know until vote day itself for sure.
But one thing is for sure, with Vic Labor Factional antics and job's for mates and the escalating outcries of voters needing urgent roads, infrastructure and services that help reduce the cost of living while housing remaining a core issue. Vic Labor will have some trouble at the ballot box and I am interested in seeing how the machine turns it around, and can it?
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