It Ain't Pretty
Hive touched 11 cents today and while this is sad to say the least, there is another elephant in the room: HBD.
HBD is debt for our chain and I never really gave it much attention, since Hive's price was well above the critical threshold that signals danger for HBD. But with Hive's price falling seemingly with no end in sight, we should have a closer look.
Curently, the chain's debt is at around 12% (I am assuming HBD's MC is divided by Hive's MC here). As you can see it has risen quite sharply over the last few months. Overall, this is only the fourth time in our chain's history that it has gone above this threshold, so it doesn't happen too often. But if we account for the fact that HBD has only been truly stable since Hive's creation (on Steem it often depegged and was worth much more than $1), it's actually the first time that we have reached this level. What makes it potentially even more problematic is that we are supposed to be in the final stages of a "bull market". So, if debt levels are already this high at "peak", where could they be when the bear rages?
If we actually assume this scenario, the answer is very bleak: HBD will depeg with absolute certainity. The current Hive debt support price is at 5 cents. While that used to be a very far target, it isn't anymore. It's only another 60% correction... Yikes! Of course that assumes we simply fall below 10 cents which (while it already happened in the flash crash), is the only support left for Hive.
What happens when Hive cannot sustain its debt anymore?
We have seen it before and it wasn't pretty. But should it happen again, it's going to be even worse because Hive's price would be actually much lower (before it was mainly caused because HBD depeged).
- HBD becomes useless: if it depegs, we could see HBD fall well below $1. I think the last time it was like 30-50 cents? It remained there for many months. We can't really use it for anything anymore. Will HBD's stability/conversion mechanism be enough to stabilize it again?
- Hive fund will stop working: All projects that are currently being funded with the DHF will receive a fraction of their payouts. This will cause operators to run out of funding. Essentially, we won't have one anymore until HBD stabilizes again.
- Hive witnesses: My knowledge is a bit patchy here, but I think they also receive HBD is part? If so, there is the same problem as with the DHF. An extremely low Hive price would also be problematic as witnesses might not be able to cover expenses anymore. So here it is more of an indirect effect.
Conclusion
If somebody told me that I would post about Hive's debt problems in late 2025, I wouldn't have believed it. Yet here we are. Fingers crossed we actually bounce from these levels and head to a relief rally in Q1 of 2026. Perhaps one silver lining is that a lot of HBD would be converted to Hive at such low levels and thereby reducing the debt of the chain (would that work?). Currently, there is around $11M of debt which would probably shrink quite quickly should Hive's price fall even lower. I guess this would also be motivated by people who wouldn't want to get stuck in holding useless HBD and thereby converting it before hitting the debt threshold.
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This moment is new to me. I've been through a lot at Hive in my four-plus years here, but if HBD loses this stability, it will be the first time. I'm also quite apprehensive because I've been counting on HBD being paired at $1... so if something happens... it's complicated.
I swapped all my HBD to HIVE recently and hope it can raise to 20 cents in Q1 26
In my view the Hive whales and witnesses are closely watching this. They will not let this happen. Surely this is a dangerous situation but to deal with it, the whales, big investors, and witnesses will play their role. Whatever HBD I had I have converted all of it into Hive.
Lets hope for best!
not sure what they can really do other than keeping the chain alive with running nodes etc. But I think we will get some attention with 11.11 when Altera launches
One possibility is to lower the ROI of HBD, that is a decision that the witnesses can take to encourage HBD to Hive conversions, at this point it should be a must.
True, it should definitely be considered. It would also reduce the amount of HBD in circulation
While I don't know if HBD will actually depeg on external markets when the debt limit is hit (30%) the HBD haircut rule will come into affect. The internal market might fair better due to HBDstablizer
This basically means HBD from posts will stop printing, I think Conversions either also stop or result in vastly lower conversion rates.
I'm not 100% sure what happens to savings interest and DHF payments been a few years since I've last thought about the debt limit system.
All in all it's not a good thing to happen, but I honestly don't think we'll get there any time soon. Largely because hardfork 28 on the 19th of november will significantly (due to low price) cut inflation by taking the HBD in the DHF out of the inflation calculations, since it's 'dormant' until it's payed out.
Similar to what was done when removing DHF from the debt calculations.
oh thanks, didn't know about that!
Yeah I was looking to hbdstats early and that is for sure something to consider....
it’s been tough seeing Hive down here, but looking at the bright side, the weekly chart is starting to show some interesting signs. We seen Hive wake up near the end of BTC bull runs before, like in 2022 when altseason kicked in.
Right now the weekly RSI is sitting low and looks ready to cross upward again, which often signals a reversal from oversold levels. The candles are also hugging the lower Bollinger Band, and we usually seen bounces from this area in the past. A move back toward the band around 0.3 wouldn’t be crazy if momentum returns.
At these prices, converting HBD to Hive might even turn out to be a smart play especially if this is indeed the bottom zone and we start to recover later into Q1 2026.
Markets always look the worst right before they turn around, and Hive has already proven it can survive and bounce through multiple cycles. If Bitcoin finishes strong and altseason rolls in again, Hive could surprise us once more.
Not financial advice, just some hopeful perspective.
that is true, I guess we only have Hopium for the moment. Fingers crossed!
We will survive!
For some reason, many didn't believe HIVE would plummet during the bear market. But HIVE is an altcoin like any other; it obeys the general laws of the market.
although I doubt many would have considered 2025 to be a bear market year. Perhaps a lot is starting to make sense when seen like this. But you are right, there is no reason to believe that Hive would do well in a bear market.
The sell-off continues, and this time I can say 100% that it is not the users who are doing it, but someone is selling the entire platform's assets in large quantities, users should ask where the money is going. Such a decline has now brought HIVE on to low price, If BTC shows that we are earlier in a bear market - which could very easily happen right now, then Hive will not survive the next 12 months, and those people who are keeping people ignorant, dark and calm here on Hive world , you will soon be hunted down. 😆👍👍👍
Now I'm laughing on are creators 😆😆😆👍👍 ....and who sold HIVE too much in the last 11 months off, and I'm getting ready to watch the hunting season across the road, I bought beers ready to watch the show. 🍻🍻 ..... they all sit peacefully on there 100 and 100 bot pages and think that no one can touch them, this is completely absurd behavior what our creators do....You guys cut your own throat out of greed... we have more BOTs here on HIVE then users.
I suppose Upbit is the major culprit, but I haven't looked at the stats recently. The true whales are off chain imo, they have dictated price since the beginning.
What a dicy situation we have at the moment.
we have had worse, I guess. But it's definitely not great!
We are not in the final stages of the bull market. Crypto with its great liquidity is first to react to the global markets. The stock market and gold are down too.
As the global business cycle has just started, we’ll see a bull market throughout 2026. Possibly peaking towards the end of 2026.
The hive price is set at centralized exchanges with very low volume, which is always a weird thing.
Still Hive at 5ct’s is very far away. Another 50% drop is not easy to do and several people on hive will be buying heavily before that price.
The witnesses are watching this for sure and I expect the interest on HBD in savings to be reduced if hive drops below 10ct’s.
I agree, it's just still so weird to me how 2025 unfolded.
Well, if you see that on Binance the 24h volume of Hive is less then 800k. While the market cap is 54 million. Then a very small part of Hive is responsible for setting the price in dollar value.
It hurts to see Hive reach the 11 cents mark
it will be very bad if HBD becomes useless when its value goes down
@davidke20 o.o
I am waiting to see on what the situation will be on the Q1 of 2026
Other coins have a bunch of hope the numbers go up dipshits, but HIVE has a COMMUNITY, so HBD will be fine.
Indeed, It's a concerning matter.